Gambling on the Chicago Sky has opened my eyes to a few factors in the new world of legalized gambling. The biggest insight is how many people are gambling poorly on sports because they are looking for familiarity. The WNBA betting lines and their inactivity showed a lack of interest and a lack of knowledge on the part of sports bettors. That must be the case because I have been touting the Chicago Sky in the WNBA playoffs for weeks and it feels like nobody is listening. If you want proof, check our Twitter posts.
Why Bet on The Sky?
Why do bettors keep throwing away money betting on teams like the Bears even when nobody knew who the starting QB was going to be? That is an entertainment bet, not a bet based on actual handicapping.
If the Sky were playing in a more mainstream spotlight, like the NBA, everybody would have figured out their modus operandi and handicapped their playoff chances accordingly. However, nobody cared how they played. And nobody cared how crazy the odds against them were. When this happens, there is money to be made.
The Chicago Sky’s Crazy Odds
After clinching a playoff berth, the odds on the sky were +1800, which is 18-1. I could not believe it. Then the odds moved to +2000, which is 20-1. The path through the playoffs stayed the same the whole time. For anybody who knew anything about this team, it should have been baffling based on the Sky’s personnel, style of play, and their coach. Then, as each game’s pointspread came out I kept being befuddled at how many points the Sky kept getting.
The Chicago Sky was built for the postseason.
There is no doubt that the Sky was assembled and coached for a run in the playoffs. I am sure they woulda loved a more successful regular season and a higher seed. But it was apparent that the playoffs and a meeting with the Connecticut Sun were the goal and everybody overlooked this. Beating the Connecticut Sun was a part of the plan. It is no coincidence that a 16-16 record included a 2-1 mark vs the #1 seed. This was all by design.
The Sky’s Personnel
What do Parker, Vandersloot, Copper, Quigley, and DeShields have in common? Two things. The are all more than capable scorers who averaged over 10ppg this year. And they can all play defense.
Playoff basketball in any league and on any level starts with a renewed emphasis on defense. The Sky didn’t have to renew. They were on a level of defense where they could just turn it up. And that’s what they did. Ask the Connecticut Sun guards who, all of a sudden, weren’t getting the easy looks they got all season long. Or you can ask the ladies from Dallas and Minnesota. In the first 2 play-in games, Dallas and Minnesota didn’t stand a chance.
James Wade, the man with the plan!
Let’s give the credit here to coach James Wade. Time after time the Sky got hit with a double team. I kept seeing 2 passes out of the double. Then the person with the ball was so wide open they had a chance to look around before taking an open shot. That’s no accident. That’s a coach who knows his players, knows the defense, and plans for success. Connecticut Sun kept doing it and and the Sky kept scoring.
The best job a coach can do is to put his players in the best position to be successful. James Wade did that. The rest of the league better recognize!
The Games and Chicago Sky’s Betting Lines
Having touted the Sky as they entered the playoffs I was sure the odds would tighten up and profits would be tough.
Nope.
Even after beating the Sun 2 of 3 in the regular season, then beating them in Game 1 in Connecticut, the Sky were briefly a 6.5 point underdog when they returned home. The money lines were even more attractive as they stayed above the plus level. It made no sense to me.
Each game where the Sky was getting points, we touted taking the moneyline which offered a much better payout. This was based on the conclusion that the Sky had a great chance to win every game outright. Getting paid out on plus-odds in 5 playoff games out of 6 is a pretty good outcome.
Here we are with cashes on 5 of 6 AND a weighted average +1875 bet on the Sky to take down the WNBA Finals. So, now what?
Fear the Aces
I have to admit the Las Vegas Aces have a big shot at ruining my plans. The Aces are built a lot like the Sky. Several capable scorers who thrive on aggressive defense. They get a lot of open looks. 7 Aces averaged double digits. The Aces also took down the Sky each time they played in the regular season. I will be rooting for the Phoenix Mercury in Game 5 for the much easier matchup.
However, from a betting perspective, if the Sky and and the Aces match up, I will be examining the moneylines game by game looking for hedges to my +1875 bet. I will not take a buyout from the bookie but I will hedge down to 12-1 at the lowest. Additionally, even though both teams can D-up, I am interested in seeing how the over/under lines present themselves. With 10 scorers on the floor to start every game, the OVER may be the wager of choice in a Sky vs Aces Finals.
No matter the outcome, the Chicago Sky have given us a great gambling opportunity and a great run for Chicago sports. We will keep watching, keep betting, and hopefully keep cashing on our Chicago Sky!
