Friday officially kicks off Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs. The highlight of Friday’s card will be the 2021 edition of the Longines Kentucky Oaks. This 1-1/8 mile affair over the main dirt course is for 3yr old fillies competing for a purse of $1,250,000. The 11th race on Friday’s card has fourteen precocious ladies scheduled to make their way into the starting gate.
When breaking down this year’s Kentucky Oaks we note that all 14 runners are coming out of 6 prep races. This makes the handicapping a little easier as we only need to watch 6 replays to judge the trips. Let’s take a look at all 6.
G3 – Fantasy (Oaklawn)
2-turn dirt races at Oaklawn were won wire-to-wire 23% of the time. Deep closers won at about the same clip so the track was fair. However, inside posts held a clear advantage around 2 turns which is why Pauline’s Pearl victory may be better than it seems on paper. Ava’s Grace took an easy lead, set a fair pace and was no match for Pauline’s Pearl in the lane. Pauline’s Pearl was hung wide both turns but jockey Ricardo Santana knew he had horse under him as he didn’t move a muscle until mid-stretch. A couple whip taps and some hand urging later, Pauline’s Pearl stretched out to a 1 length victory and ran on well after the wire.
G3 – Gazelle (Aqueduct)
Search Results did not disappoint as the 2/5 favorite. She stalked a tepid pace and made the winning move entering the top of the stretch. While she posted the highest Brisnet speed rating in the field for the 2nd consecutive race, I was more impressed with 2nd place finisher Maracuja. Maracuja sat last behind the dawdling frontrunners and was still able to make a very wide move on the turn for home in her first attempt around 2 turns.
G2 – Fair Ground Oaks
As the 2-1 public’s choice, Travel Column easily dismissed this field without much effort. Leaving from the outside post she effortlessly stalked another slow pace and drew off down the stretch without much asking. Clairiere did well to come on for 2nd but never threatened the winner. The final speed figure was respectable but it was hard to read anything into Travel Column’s performance. She was never asked, never challenged, and victory was never in doubt. The only question is, how much more will she have against better competition?
G1 – Ashland (Keeneland)
Malathaat and Pass the Champagne put on a stretch duel match race after another slow pace prep race. Pass the Champagne tried to steal the race with a big move at the top of the stretch. Malathaat was forced to chase 4-5 wide on the turn. With ever-widening strides to the wire, Malathaat was impressive in victory and is a deserving 5-2 morning line Oaks favorite. The only caveat is that both top finishers came from a favorable off the pace position as Keeneland 2 turn dirt races continued the trend of early speed fading.
G1 – Santa Anita Oaks
A typical tiny field boat race at Santa Anita for the first ¾ mile, then a brilliant duel between Beautiful Gift and Soothesay. Too bad only 3rd place finisher Moraz is in the Oaks. Based on her fading badly, she is one of the first horses I will toss from consideration. Moraz will not win but she will have influence on the pace.
G2 – Gulfstream Park Oaks
Crazy Beautiful made a brilliant worst-to-first move on the turn and powered on by to the wire. Jose Ortiz navigated a brilliant trip while patiently waiting for room instead of circling the field and losing ground. After some light hand urging, one crack of the whip sparked a noticeable burst for a drawing away 2-1/4 length win. To add to the theme of all these preps, the race had little pace to chase which makes the closing move more impressive.
The Breakdown
Churchill Downs dirt 2 turn races have been running fairly with no significant advantage for any running style. Let’s note that there is not a single speedball in this year’s Kentucky Oaks. This inclines me to give favor to horses who will be up close. Pass the Champagne, Travel Column, Ava’s Grace, Moraz, and Search Results will all definitely be near the front. Following those will be Pauline’s Pearl, Coach, Will’s Secret, Malathaat and Millefeuille. From the back will be Maracuja, Crazy Beautiful, Clairiere, and Competitive Speed.
With no obvious early speed, I expect Moraz to be the pacesetter and several horses to get impatient with the plodding in the early going. This will cause a quickening in the middle of the race that will dismiss the likes of Moraz.
The Kentucky Oaks Winning Pick
The late runners will end up with too much to do while the mid-pack crew will be fresh and ready. That is why My pick for the win is Pauline’s Pearl. Pauline’s Pearl has been on an uptrend in her past 3 races, including her wide-running G3 Fantasy win and a close 2nd in the G3 Honeybee where she lacked room and still closed from 6th into a pedestrian 49.6 second half mile pace. Her progress has been masked by her ability to overcome which is another great trait for a young horse. I expect her to break relaxed from the rail, save all the ground, and grind it on by. Hoping we get somewhere near the 20-1 morning line for a nice score.
If you feel the need to back it up, try an exacta with Pauline’s Pearl, Malathaat, and the closing Crazy Beautiful. Pace will make this race.
