The big games for most fantasy sports players and sports bettors are the popular ones. Baseball, football, basketball and hockey dominate the landscape. Trying to select individual stars in a team sport seems second nature to most sports fans. It allows us to root for a player and win even when his teammates perform subpar. Who doesn’t love it when their guy drops 50 in an NBA loss? How about when a QB on a bad team is forced to chuck it downfield on every play and pile up big stats in a blowout?
These are the subjective and unpredictable factors that make DFS tough in a team sport environment.
This week, however, we get to concentrate on an individual sport. Thursday will welcome round 1 of The Masters Golf Tournament at Augusta National. The top 90-100 players in the world will show up to contest the most prestigious tournament in search of the green jacket. What this means to gamblers and DFS players is the opportunity to handicap an event with much more precision.
It’s Like a Horse Race
If you have been following along you know I have an affinity for the horses. When handicapping golfers, a lot of the same factors come in to play. This is why I prefer handicapping an individual sport versus the big team sports. While Hawthorne Casino Insider will not tell you who to put your hard earned money on, we will tell you how to prepare your analysis when betting on golf.
The key factors in a horse race are current form, class of previous competition, history at the track, and history at the distance. The same basic factors are exactly what I am going to look at when handicapping golfers. It may be oversimplifying the challenge but all I want to find is: who is hot right now, who has shown ability at this level of competition, who prefers this week’s style of golf course, and who can close the deal.
Alignment of Interests
When handicapping team sports for DFS the gambler’s interests are misaligned from the players’ interests. In a team sport players and coaches want to win. Yes, they care about personal stats, but the day in, day out goal is just to win. Stats come second. The point spread is not even in the conversation.
In an individual sport like golf, the stats, the win, and the cover are all rolled into one. Especially when it comes to the majors. Top 10s and top 5s are nice, but you don’t get a green jacket just for being close. If my guys is 3 shots back with 4 holes to play, we know for damn sure he is going for it. Nobody is there to take the club out of his hands. There are no intentional walks in golf.
Play the Head-to-Heads
Another one of the great things about betting on golf is the head-to-head matchups. Handicapping the players to find the best bets to win is nice. Now we can also isolate players who are not suited to the conditions and bet against them. Its always an added value proposition whenever you can play “the don’t”.
Here is the basic strategy. I rank all the golfers based on the handicapping factors described above. In a field of 90-100 golfers, I may isolate 10 of them who are worth a bet. This same process should also isolate at least 10 players who I think have no chance.
Based on the head to heads I then search for the opportunity to play any/all of my top 10 against any/all of my bottom 10 in head to head matchups. Hopefully, a few of the bottom guys have head to heads listed. If the sports books don’t have head to head markets for any/many of my bottom guys I will move up the list a little just for the action.
Whether you are betting on golf straight up, head to head, or via DFS, the handicapping is the same. When individual sport athletes compete, their goals are the same as yours. That is the best time to play.
