The evolution of horseplaying has led me down many paths in the pursuit of that elusive thing called “value”. Value is the horseplayer’s edge between his/her picks versus the final odds, including the track’s takeout, which can be prohibitive. Its hard enough to find horses that are likely to win, but then we must incorporate the final odds into the equations which ultimately influences which horses will give us value.
Who hasn’t doped out a race, found a horse that is playable at certain odds, placed a win bet in the last minute when the tote board flashes 7-2 on your horse, and then see the odds dump to 2-1 as the race goes off. All that work to find value and then it’s gone. Even when that horse wins it’s hard to celebrate a $6 price when you were expecting $9, a full 33% lower. It’s more of a feeling of relief than celebration because you went from a value bettor to a punter in one click of the toteboard.
Ahh, That Elusive Value.
There are three ways that I search for value when picking winners (we’ll leave exacta/trifecta/superfecta stuff for later). The first and most obvious way is by simply finding win-bet overlays. This scenario usually starts with a race that gives us a vulnerable and over-bet favorite. In a parimutuel environment, when one horse is over-bet, the math says that there is value to be found in other horses. After handicapping a field and narrowing it down to the horses I consider contenders, I estimate the multiple pace environments and how often each horse would benefit. I am basically creating my own odds for my contenders and then comparing those odds to the actual odds. The bigger the discrepancy, the bigger potential value.
Simple enough, but we still run the risk of losing that value on one click of the totebaord when we play on the fringes of our value estimates.
Find Lower Takeout
The second way to search for value is to bet on the scenarios with the lowest track takeouts. It’s like shopping at the places that charge less tax. You want to play a pick-6? Play Aqueduct where the takeout is 15%. Avoid Calder where the takeout on the same bet is a whopping 27%.
Most track takeouts range from 15%-18% for WPS bets, 18%-25% for single race exotics, and from 14%-26% on mutli-race bets. This is vital information for determining which bets provide better value. For instance, what is the better value, a $10 pick-3 or parlaying $10 on picks in the same 3 races? When you look at the takeouts it is inevitable that the pick-3 offers better value. Each win bet will be taxed around 16% while the pick-3 will be taxed only once at 25%.
Parlay:
Race #1 – $2 wager taxed at 18% on a 2-1 shot = $0.36 takeout
#2 – $6 wager (winnings from race 1 bet) taxed at 18% on a 2-1 shot = $1.08 takeout
#3 – $18 wager (winnings from race 2 bet) taxed at 18% on a 2-1 shot = $3.24 takeout
Pick-3:
$2 wager taxed at 25% = $0.50 takeout.
In this example the total takeout of the 3 parlayed win bets is $4.68. That is with the assumption of 2-1 odds on every winner. As the odds of the horses goes up, the takeout also goes up since the subsequent bets and their dollar value takeouts are larger. All else equal, it’s not hard to see that the pick-3 takeout gives a sizeable value edge via a much lower takeout ($0.50 vs. $3.24).
Carryovers
The third way to get value for your betting dollar can be summed up in three words…..carryover, carryover, carryover. When a multi-race wager has a carryover, a large portion of preceding days’ pools are carried over into today’s pool. This more than makes up for any takeout. This is why most horse betting sites will post the list of carryovers every day. So not only do these multi-race wagers generally have the lowest takeouts a track offers, but they also will occassionally give you a known carryover as well. The increased value on carryovers is widely known. It also tends to attract the sharks who hunt around for these huge pools and take huge swings at them. It’s not uncommon for a carryover at a large track like Santa Anita to attract whales who push a $150,000 carryover to over a $1,000,000.
That, my friend, is the best deal in racing.
