Saturday marks the 146th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Maryland. Carded as the 13th race and featuring 10 starters, this 1-3/16 mile romp in the dirt will traverse 2 turns around the fabled Baltimore oval. The full field of 3yr olds will vie for a $1,000,000 purse and a place in the history books.
Disgraced Kentucky Derby winner Medinah Spirit will headline this field and break from post 3. This Bob Baffert trainee will attempt to reclaim his reputation after failing his drug test following the Kentucky Derby. Though he will be the most likely favorite, I will not be backing this colt on Saturday.
Pace Makes Race
The Preakness sets up with more than a couple speed horses. A hot pace may be in the making as Medinah Spirit should be joined by Midnight Bourbon and Concert Tour before hitting the first turn.
In the Kentucky Derby Medinah Spirit was allowed to get off to an easy lead all by himself. This running style allowed him to carry that speed all the way to the wire. No closers ever entered contention. Upon review of the entire Churchill Downs Derby Day card it becomes apparent that the track favored front runners that day. The Pimlico strip will not be the same story.
In recent dirt routes at Pimlico less than 20% of races have been won in wire to wire fashion. This does not bode well for Medinah Spirit. With an expected hot pace and a track that favors those off the pace, I am looking for a stalker.
The Preakness Pick
The horse I landed on is the #4, Crowded Trade. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano, Crowded Trade has the perfect running style for this race. Finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, this lightly raced colt got shuffled back badly to a dawdling pace. A 7-wide move cost him more ground and likely the victory as he came up 1-1/2 lengths short.
With a 10-1 morning line, this fresh horse may have what it takes. I will make him my pick and hope to get somewhere near that morning line.
